Israel has to hit Iran. Soon. Very soon. There is simply no choice…and time is running out.
There can be no denying that the risks involved are very high. The external pressures facing Prime Minister Netanyahu are perhaps the greatest ever experienced by any Israeli prime minister ever, excepting perhaps modern Israel’s first, Ben Gurion, during her war of independence. Nonetheless, given the stakes involved, Netanyahu must summon the courage to act.
When and if the Israeli military takes action, here's what we can likely expect in the immediate aftermath:
- Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy steps in to stop this action, with the potential that U.S. casualties will ensue; these will be officially blamed on those "paranoid, trigger-happy Israelis."
- Given Obama's hostility towards Israel, outrageous as it may sound, it should not be considered outside the realm of possibility that Obama could order U.S. military assets in the Middle East to interfere with the initial Israeli operation. Even barring that extreme scenario, it is more than likely that Obama will tip off Iran to an impending strike – a sabotaging action that Israel would have to take into account during its operational planning.
- Gas prices may skyrocket to six, seven, eight bucks a gallon.
- The stock market could plummet five, six, seven thousand points.
- There will be scattered terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, by self-motivated Major Nidal Hasan-type hotheads and/or Hamas/Hezbollah sleeper cells.
- The press will go crazy pouncing on Israel for "provoking" this "grave crisis" and "economic meltdown" – i.e., all of Obama's talking points.
- There will be sporadic attacks on Jewish institutions and Jews themselves – pogroms, basically – wherever there are significant Jewish Diaspora populations. It will get very ugly here in America. While this writer believes most Americans would accept and understand Israel's existential dilemma and life-saving action, a significant minority will not, and some will get violent, with Obama's tacit blessing and encouragement.
Eventually other world events will eclipse the Israeli strike. If it is successful – and "success" may be defined as setting Iran back at least five years – then Obama will have lost his primary tool of leverage in coercing Israel to commit suicide. The threat of an imminently nuclear Iran has been, from the start of the Obama administration, the most important means of blackmailing Israel into capitulating to the PA/PLO's demands within the context of a Saudi-style "peace" [surrender] agreement that would set up Israel for dismantlement as a viable Jewish state. Without the Iranian nuclear threat, Israel is on solid ground to say "no" to Obama/Kerry concerning the Palestinians, and Obama knows this, which is why he has been implacably opposed to unilateral Israeli action against Iran.
Of course, Obama & Co. will try to punish Israel in the United Nations, but Israel can easily ignore that decrepit gang of tin-pot dictators and European fops. It won't be an easy time for Israel, but the U.N. doesn't represent an existential threat and its predictable hostility can be tolerated, as it always has been. Besides, U.N. shenanigans can be undone by Obama's successor. But an Iranian bomb and the threat this represents not only to Israel, but to Western interests generally, cannot be undone, except at immeasurably greater and catastrophic cost.
We may recall now that 33 years ago, the newly elected Reagan administration was adamantly opposed to Israeli action against Iraq’s nuclear program. When Israel destroyed Iraq’s Osirak complex, Reagan was initially furious with Israel, even suspending deliveries of fighter aircraft for a time and censuring Israel in the UN for her move against Iraq. Yet, it was this same prescient move on Israel’s part that earned her the sincere thanks of a grateful U.S. Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, who realized full well how much more costly the war to stop Saddam Hussein would have been by 1991…if her nuclear program had been allowed to proceed in 1981. That is, if we had even dared to stop a Saddam Hussein from a regional war of conquest backed up by operational nuclear forces.
Given that subjugating Israel in order to appease Islamist sensibilities is the primary foreign policy objective of the Obama presidency, Obama's lame duck status in the wake of a successful Israeli strike on Iran would be confirmed, and he knows it. If he loses in this sphere – just as he is losing ground on his chief domestic initiative, Obamacare – he's got nothing. He will have no legacy except complete failure, even by his own warped standards.
But the world will have gained immensely. Not only by the survival of the most vibrant, contributory democracy (actually the only genuine democracy) in the Middle East, but also by staving off the nuclear attack that the mad mullahs in Iran have promised to inflict not only on Israel, but on America. Obama and his supporters conveniently forget that to Iranian leaders, Israel is merely the "Little Satan", whereas the U.S. is the "Great Satan".
Ironically, thanks to Obama's trading in his portfolio as Commander-in-Chief for that of "Appeaser-in-Chief", Israel now finds herself in the position not only as the West's first line of defense against militant Islam, but the only line of defense for the time being.
December 16, 2013